International
Rate cuts and liquidity infusion by central banks failed
to alleviate concerns about economic growth and
markets across the globe witnessed declines. This along
with uncertainty about the problems in the financial
sector pushed the MSCI AC World Index down by
3.12%.The fall in future rate cut expectations weighed on
the bond markets, as treasury yields firmed up amidst
signs of rising inflation. However, credit markets were
bolstered by the concerted effort by central banks in US,
Europe, UK, Canada and Switzerland to infuse liquidity
and LIBOR rates eased. The US dollar gained against
major currencies on reduced rate expectations. Oil prices
firmed up as IEA revised upwards its oil demand
estimates for next year indicating that strong
consumption in Asia and Middle East will offset the
impact of the possible slowdown in US.
• Asia: Regional markets moved down on skepticism
about the impact of rate cuts and liquidity infusion.
Japanese markets were also impacted by a weak quarterly
Tankan survey, which indicated that business sentiment
amongst large companies has declined. Monetary
tightening in China continued with the tenth hike in
reserve requirements (100 bps) to 14.5%, impacting the
stock markets. Economic data such as industrial
production and trade surplus remained strong.
• Europe: Equity markets in the region rallied earlier in
the week on optimism about the central banks’ moves,
which gave way to doubts about the effectiveness.
UBS announced additional write-down of $10 billion
and a capital injection from sovereign wealth funds. In
other corporate news, Société Générale provided a
bail-out to its structured investment vehicle (SIV) and
Lafarge agreed to buy Egypt’s Orascom. Inflation in
the Euro area for November was revised upwards and
ECB comments indicated continued focus on
inflation.
• Americas: Persistent worries about credit markets
and scaling down of rate cut expectations pulled
down US equity markets. The 25 bps rate cut
announced by the Federal Reserve led to declines,
but markets recovered on the plans to introduce a
new term auction facility and foreign exchange swap
lines. However, an increase in consumer and producer
prices cast a shadow over further rate cuts, dampening
investor sentiment. Citigroup joined other financial
firms in taking the assets of its SIVs onto its balance
sheet ($49 billion in assets).
Equity Markets - India
Domestic markets rallied to life-time highs before weak
global sentiment pared weekly gains, even as FII flows
remained positive. The movement in mid & small cap
stocks continued as the respective indices outperformed
the main indices. Sectoral indices such as realty, healthcare
and consumer durables registered strong gains, while
technology and power underperformed. FII inflows were
at $528.6 million for the first four trading days.
• Technology: In 2007, the technology sector has come
under pressure due to the strong rise in the rupee and
worries about a slowdown in the US. Leading companies
have been improving their geographical diversification in
terms of clientele and one could argue that any sharp
economic slowdown could result in increased
outsourcing by western firms to protect margins. We
believe well-managed Indian companies will do well
over the medium to long term, though there could be
some margin pressures and earnings disappointments
over the near term.
Economy: Industrial production bounced back sharply
in October and the IIP registered a 11.8% growth,
compared to an upwardly revised 6.8% growth in
September.The sharp rise could be partly attributed to
last year’s low base and was led primarily by a 13.3% rise
in manufacturing. Other sectors– mining and electricity,
witnessed modest growth rates of 3.7% and 4.2%
respectively.The festival demand appears to have boosted
consumer goods growth (up 12.5%), with consumer
durables growing by 9.3%. Industrial growth continues
to be investment led, with capital goods growing at a
strong pace – 20.5%.
The monetary tightening witnessed over recent years
and the impact of a stronger rupee & economic
uncertainty in developed markets on export growth, are
likely to moderate industrial activity.On the other hand,
rising capital expenditure and infrastructure spending
could prove to be strong drivers.
Debt Markets - India
Tightening liquidity due to advance tax flows and
outflows for auctions weighed on investor sentiment.The
mood was also impacted by the rise in inflation and strong
growth in industrial production. The US rate cut and
liquidity infusion by central banks did not have much
impact.
• Market movements: Yields on the 10 year
benchmark gilt moved up by 2 bps and 5 year gilt
yields also firmed up. The yield on corporate bonds of
a similar tenor added 9 bps and spreads over 5-year gilts
expanded to 147 bps.Yields on the 30 year paper were
unchanged, while 1-year gilt yields moved up by 10
bps. As a result, the yield curve flattened with spreads
between short & long dated gilts (1 and 30 year papers)
contracting to 63 bps.
• Liquidity/borrowings: Tight liquidity conditions
resulted in call rates touching a high of 8% before closing
in the 7.5-7.7% range compared to 4.25-4.5% levels last
week. The average reverse repos were at Rs.8 crores
compared to last week’s Rs.1403 crores, and RBI
injected liquidity through repo auctions. The twin
auctions (7.99% GOI 2017 and 8.33% GOI 2036)
received bids of around Rs.18,000 crores against the
notified amount of Rs.7000 crores.
• Forex: Despite the strength in the US dollar, continued
capital flows resulted in the rupee strengthening and the
domestic currency closed at 39.34/35, compared to last
week’s close of 39.395/405. Forex reserves moved up
marginally and remained at the $273 billion mark. The
latest monthly bulletin indicated that RBI had purchased
$12.5 billion dollar in October, pushing the YTD
number to $64.326 billion.
• Macro: The headline inflation as represented by
wholesale price index moved higher to 3.75% (as of
Dec 1), due to a rise in the prices of all items,
especially energy prices. The threat of imported
inflation remains alive due to the high oil and
commodity prices. Given the benign macro economic
conditions, we expect yields at the long end of the
curve to stabilise. Attractive accruals at the short end
of the corporate yield curve would continue to make
the 1-2 year segment attractive.
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